Association Between Change in Ambulatory Pulmonary Artery Pressures and Natriuretic Peptides in Patients with Heart Failure: Results From the EMBRACE-HF Trial.

BACKGROUND: Remote monitoring of pulmonary artery (PA) pressures and serial N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) measurements guide heart failure (HF) treatment, but their association has yet to be described. METHODS AND RESULTS: In the Empagliflozin Evaluation by Measuring the Impact on Hemodynamics in Patients with Heart Failure (EMBRACE-HF) trial, patients with HF and a remote PA pressure monitoring device were randomized to empagliflozin vs placebo. PA diastolic pressures (PADP) and NT-proBNP levels were obtained at baseline and 6 and 12 weeks. We used linear mixed models to examine the association between change in PADP and change in NT-proBNP, adjusting for baseline covariates. Of 62 patients, the mean patient age was 66.2 years, and 63% were male. The mean baseline PADP was 21.8 ± 6.4 mm Hg, and the mean NT-proBNP was 1844.6 ± 2767.7 pg/mL. The mean change between baseline and averaged 6- and 12-week PADP was -0.4 ± 3.1 mm Hg, and the mean change between baseline and averaged 6- and 12-week NT-proBNP was -81.5 ± 878.6 pg/mL. In adjusted analyses, every 2-mm Hg decrease in PADP was associated with an NT-proBNP reduction of 108.9 pg/mL (95% confidence interval -4.3 to 222.0, P = .06). CONCLUSIONS: We observed that short-term decreases in ambulatory PADP seem to be associated with decreases in NT-proBNP. This finding may provide additional clinical context when tailoring treatment for patients with HF.

Comparative Effectiveness Research using Bayesian Adaptive Designs for Rare Diseases: Response Adaptive Randomization Reusing Participants.

Slow accrual rate is a major challenge in clinical trials for rare diseases and is identified as the most frequent reason for clinical trials to fail. This challenge is amplified in comparative effectiveness research where multiple treatments are compared to identify the best treatment. Novel efficient clinical trial designs are in urgent need in these areas. Our proposed response adaptive randomization (RAR) reusing participants trial design mimics the real-world clinical practice that allows patients to switch treatments when desired outcome is not achieved. The proposed design increases efficiency by two strategies: 1) Allowing participants to switch treatments so that each participant can have more than one observation and hence it is possible to control for participant specific variability to increase statistical power; and 2) Utilizing RAR to allocate more participants to the promising arms such that ethical and efficient studies will be achieved. Extensive simulations were conducted and showed that, compared with trials where each participant receives one treatment, the proposed participants reusing RAR design can achieve comparable power with a smaller sample size and a shorter trial duration, especially when the accrual rate is low. The efficiency gain decreases as the accrual rate increases.

Treatment patterns and glycated haemoglobin levels over 36 months in individuals with type 2 diabetes initiating second-line glucose-lowering therapy: The global DISCOVER study.

AIMS: To describe glucose-lowering treatment regimens and glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c) trajectories in individuals with type 2 diabetes (T2D) over 36 months of follow-up from the start of second-line therapy. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This data analysis from the 3-year, observational DISCOVER study programme included 14 687 participants from 37 countries with T2D initiating second-line glucose-lowering therapy. Treatment and HbA1c data were collected at baseline (start of second-line therapy) and at 6, 12, 24 and 36 months. Treatment regimen changes over follow-up were analysed using the McNemar test, with carry-forward imputation for intermediate missing values. RESULTS: A total of 11 592 participants had treatment data at baseline and 36 months, and 11 882 had HbA1c data at baseline. At baseline and 36 months, respectively, rates of oral monotherapy use were 12.1% and 12.4% (P = 0.22), rates of dual oral therapy use were 63.4% and 47.6% (P < 0.0001), rates of ≥ triple oral therapy use were 17.5% and 25.4% (P < 0.0001), and rates of injectable treatment use were 7.0% and 13.7% (P < 0.0001). Use of injectable drugs was most common among participants with an HbA1c level ≥64 mmol/mol (≥8.0%). Overall, 42.9% of participants changed treatment during follow-up. Mean HbA1c levels at baseline and 6 months were 67 mmol/mol (8.3%) and 55 mmol/mol (7.2%), respectively, remaining stable thereafter. CONCLUSIONS: Dual oral therapy was the most common treatment regimen at the start of second-line treatment, and over half of the participants remained on the same treatment during follow-up.

Association of country economy and socioeconomic factors on risk factor control for primary prevention of cardiovascular disease in patients with diabetes mellitus: Insights from the DISCOVER study.

BACKGROUND: We sought to describe global patterns in achievement of risk factor control for primary prevention in patients with T2D and explore the association of country's GNI/capita with risk factor control. METHODS: The DISCOVER study is a prospective, observational study of patients with T2D from 38 countries enrolled at initiation of second-line glucose-lowering therapy. We examined achievement of risk factor control (glycosylated hemoglobin <7%, blood pressure <140/90 mmHg, prescription of a statin) at 3 years among those without optimal control at baseline. Countries were stratified by gross national income (GNI)/capita, from 2017). We examined the impact of country GNI/capita with achievement of risk factor control. FINDINGS: Our cohort included 9613 patients with T2D and without baseline cardiovascular disease (mean age 57.2 ± 8.7 years, 47.9% women). At baseline, 6354/7646 patients (83.1%) had suboptimal glucose control, 3449/9200 patients (37.5%) had suboptimal BP control, and 2800/4221 patients (66.7%) were not on an appropriate statin (sample sizes differed due to missing covariate data). Optimal control at 3 years of follow-up was achieved in 41% (glucose), 56% (blood pressure), and 29% (statins) of patients. There was significant variability in achievement of risk factor control across countries but no association between country GNI/capita with achievement of risk factor control (p > 0.08 for all). INTERPRETATION: In a global, prospective study of patients with T2D, we found that cardiovascular risk factor control achievement was suboptimal despite 3 years of follow-up in specialized health care systems. Neither country-level nor patient-level socioeconomic factors fully explained this finding.

Diabetes Care Among Older Adults Enrolled in Medicare Advantage Versus Traditional Medicare Fee-For-Service Plans: The Diabetes Collaborative Registry.

OBJECTIVE: Medicare Advantage (MA), Medicare's managed care program, is quickly expanding, yet little is known about diabetes care quality delivered under MA compared with traditional fee-for-service (FFS) Medicare. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: This was a retrospective cohort study of Medicare beneficiaries ≥65 years old enrolled in the Diabetes Collaborative Registry from 2014 to 2019 with type 2 diabetes treated with one or more antihyperglycemic therapies. Quality measures, cardiometabolic risk factor control, and antihyperglycemic prescription patterns were compared between Medicare plan groups, adjusted for sociodemographic and clinical factors. RESULTS: Among 345,911 Medicare beneficiaries, 229,598 (66%) were enrolled in FFS and 116,313 (34%) in MA plans (for ≥1 month). MA beneficiaries were more likely to receive ACE inhibitors/angiotensin receptor blockers for coronary artery disease, tobacco cessation counseling, and screening for retinopathy, foot care, and kidney disease (adjusted P ≤ 0.001 for all). MA beneficiaries had modestly but significantly higher systolic blood pressure (+0.2 mmHg), LDL cholesterol (+2.6 mg/dL), and HbA1c (+0.1%) (adjusted P < 0.01 for all). MA beneficiaries were independently less likely to receive glucagon-like peptide 1 receptor agonists (6.9% vs. 9.0%; adjusted odds ratio 0.80, 95% CI 0.77-0.84) and sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitors (5.4% vs. 6.7%; adjusted odds ratio 0.91, 95% CI 0.87-0.95). When integrating Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services-linked data from 2014 to 2017 and more recent unlinked data from the Diabetes Collaborative Registry through 2019 (total N = 411,465), these therapeutic differences persisted, including among subgroups with established cardiovascular and kidney disease. CONCLUSIONS: While MA plans enable greater access to preventive care, this may not translate to improved intermediate health outcomes. MA beneficiaries are also less likely to receive newer antihyperglycemic therapies with proven outcome benefits in high-risk individuals. Long-term health outcomes under various Medicare plans requires surveillance.

Socioeconomic Factors Associated With Glycemic Measurement and Poor HbA1c Control in People With Type 2 Diabetes: The Global DISCOVER Study.

DISCOVER is a 3-year observational study program of 15,983 people with type 2 diabetes initiating second-line glucose-lowering therapy in 38 countries. We investigated the association between socioeconomic status and both the availability of a baseline glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) measurement and poor glycemic control (HbA1c level ≥ 9.0%) in participants enrolled in DISCOVER. Factors associated with a lack of baseline HbA1c measurement or an HbA1c level ≥ 9.0% were assessed using three-level hierarchical logistic models. Overall, 19.1% of participants did not have a baseline HbA1c measurement recorded. Lower-middle country income (vs. high) and primary/no formal education (vs. university education) were independently associated with a reduced likelihood of having a baseline HbA1c measurement (odds ratio [95% confidence interval]: 0.11 [0.03-0.49] and 0.81 [0.66-0.98], respectively. Of the participants with an available HbA1c measurement, 26.9% had an HbA1c level ≥ 9.0%; 68.7% of these individuals were from lower- or upper-middle-income countries. Factors associated with an increased likelihood of poor glycemic control included low country income, treatment at a site with public and/or governmental funding (vs. private funding) and having public or no health insurance (vs. private). A substantial proportion of DISCOVER participants did not have an HbA1c measurement; more than one-quarter of these participants had poorly controlled type 2 diabetes. Both individual- and country-level socioeconomic factors are associated with the quality of care regarding glycemic control. Awareness of these factors could help improve the management of patients with type 2 diabetes.

Factors associated with weight loss in people with overweight or obesity living with type 2 diabetes mellitus: Insights from the global DISCOVER study.

AIMS: To estimate real-world change in weight over 3 years and the factors influencing it in participants who are overweight and live with type 2 diabetes. MATERIALS AND METHODS: DISCOVER is a multinational prospective observational study that enrolled participants with type 2 diabetes between December 2014 and June 2016 at the time of initiation of a second-line glucose-lowering medication (GLM). Demographic, anthropometric, and quality-of-life data were collected at baseline, and after 6, 12, 24 and 36 months of follow-up. Using a hierarchical, repeated-measures linear regression model, we examined factors associated with weight change over time. RESULTS: Of 10 675 participants with type 2 diabetes who were overweight/obese (mean age 57.1 ± 11.1 years, 46% women), 21% lost ≥5% weight over 3 years, which was associated with modestly improved physical and mental health. Advancing age, female sex, and higher baseline weight were associated with weight loss. Most importantly, the type of GLM prescribed at previous visit had the strongest impact on weight change over time independent of participant factors, with use of a sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitor or glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonist associated with 1.0% weight loss versus a 0.6% weight gain with sulphonylureas, thiazolidinediones, meglitinides or insulin. CONCLUSION: In this large contemporary prospective study, approximately one in five participants with early-stage type 2 diabetes and overweight/obesity lost ≥5% weight over 3 years. The type of GLM has the most impact on weight loss over time, highlighting the need for a careful selection of agents that takes baseline weight into consideration.

Dapagliflozin and Kidney Outcomes in Hospitalized Patients with COVID-19 Infection: An Analysis of the DARE-19 Randomized Controlled Trial.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Patients who were hospitalized with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infection are at high risk of AKI and KRT, especially in the presence of CKD. The Dapagliflozin in Respiratory Failure in Patients with COVID-19 (DARE-19) trial showed that in patients hospitalized with COVID-19, treatment with dapagliflozin versus placebo resulted in numerically fewer participants who experienced organ failure or death, although these differences were not statistically significant. We performed a secondary analysis of the DARE-19 trial to determine the efficacy and safety of dapagliflozin on kidney outcomes in the overall population and in prespecified subgroups of participants defined by baseline eGFR. DESIGN, SETTING, PARTICIPANTS, & MEASUREMENTS: The DARE-19 trial randomized 1250 patients who were hospitalized (231 [18%] had eGFR <60 ml/min per 1.73 m2) with COVID-19 and cardiometabolic risk factors to dapagliflozin or placebo. Dual primary outcomes (time to new or worsened organ dysfunction or death, and a hierarchical composite end point of recovery [change in clinical status by day 30]), and the key secondary kidney outcome (composite of AKI, KRT, or death), and safety were assessed in participants with baseline eGFR <60 and ≥60 ml/min per 1.73 m2. RESULTS: The effect of dapagliflozin versus placebo on the primary prevention outcome (hazard ratio, 0.80; 95% confidence interval, 0.58 to 1.10), primary recovery outcome (win ratio, 1.09; 95% confidence interval, 0.97 to 1.22), and the composite kidney outcome (hazard ratio, 0.74; 95% confidence interval, 0.50 to 1.07) were consistent across eGFR subgroups (P for interaction: 0.98, 0.67, and 0.44, respectively). The effects of dapagliflozin on AKI were also similar in participants with eGFR <60 ml/min per 1.73 m2 (hazard ratio, 0.71; 95% confidence interval, 0.29 to 1.77) and ≥60 ml/min per 1.73 m2 (hazard ratio, 0.69; 95% confidence interval, 0.37 to 1.29). Dapagliflozin was well tolerated in participants with eGFR <60 and ≥60 ml/min per 1.73 m2. CONCLUSIONS: The effects of dapagliflozin on primary and secondary outcomes in hospitalized participants with COVID-19 were consistent in those with eGFR below/above 60 ml/min per 1.73 m2. Dapagliflozin was well tolerated and did not increase the risk of AKI in participants with eGFR below or above 60 ml/min per 1.73 m2.

Global use of SGLT2 inhibitors and GLP-1 receptor agonists in type 2 diabetes. Results from DISCOVER.

BACKGROUND: Despite strong evidence of benefit, uptake of newer glucose-lowering medications that reduce cardiovascular risk has been low. We sought to examine global trends and predictors of use of SGLT2i and GLP-1 RA in patients with type 2 diabetes. METHODS: DISCOVER is a global, prospective, observational study of patients with diabetes enrolled from 2014-16 at initiation of second-line glucose-lowering therapy and followed for 3 years. We used hierarchical logistic regression to examine factors associated with use of either an SGLT2i or GLP-1 RA at last follow-up and to assess country-level variability. RESULTS: Among 14,576 patients from 37 countries, 1579 (10.8%) were started on an SGLT2i (1275; 8.7%) or GLP-1 RA (318; 2.2%) at enrollment, increasing to 16.1% at end of follow-up, with large variability across countries (range 0-62.7%). Use was highest in patients treated by cardiologists (26.1%) versus primary care physicians (10.4%), endocrinologists (16.9%), and other specialists (22.0%; p < 0.001). Coronary artery disease (OR 1.29, 95% CI 1.08-1.54) was associated with greater use of SGLT2i or GLP-1 RA while peripheral artery disease (OR 0.73, 95% CI 0.54-1.00) and chronic kidney disease (OR 0.73, 95% CI 0.58-0.94) were associated with lower use (OR 0.73, 95% CI 0.54-1.00). The country-level median odds ratio was 3.48, indicating a very large amount of variability in the use of SGLT2i or GLP-1 RA independent of patient demographic and clinical factors. CONCLUSIONS: Global use of glucose-lowering medications with established cardiovascular benefits has increased over time but remains suboptimal, particularly in sub-groups most likely to benefit. Substantial country-level variability exists independent of patient factors, suggesting structural barriers may limit more widespread use of these medications.

Quality of life in people with type 2 diabetes in the 3 years following initiation of second-line therapy: The DISCOVER study.

AIMS: To assess changes in health-related quality of life (HRQoL) in DISCOVER, a 3-year, longitudinal, observational study of patients with type 2 diabetes initiating a second-line glucose-lowering therapy. METHODS: HRQoL was assessed using the physical and mental component summary (PCS and MCS) scores of the 36-item Short-Form Health Survey version 2 (score ranges: 0-100; higher denotes better HRQoL) and the Hypoglycaemia Fear Survey II (HFS-II; score range: 0-132 scale; higher indicates greater fear of hypoglycaemia). Latent class growth modelling (LCGM) was used to identify patients with similar score trajectories. RESULTS: Mean baseline PCS (n = 7428), MCS (n = 7453), and HFS-II (n = 5005) scores were 48.0, 45.4, and 15.4, respectively, and remained stable during follow-up. LCGM revealed subgroups with low or decreasing HRQoL. Patients in these subgroups tended to be older, had more comorbidities, and a lower socioeconomic status than in other subgroups. Use of insulin and sulfonylureas was highest in the subgroup with the highest fear of hypoglycaemia. CONCLUSIONS: Overall, HRQoL remained stable in DISCOVER patients during follow-up. However, LCGM suggests that some patient characteristics and use of sulfonylureas or insulin are associated with low or decreasing HRQoL, potentially warranting the use of alternative therapies.

Impact of micro- and macrovascular complications of type 2 diabetes on quality of life: Insights from the DISCOVER prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: The key goals of management in patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D) are to prolong life and improve quality of life. Micro- and macrovascular complications of T2D not only increase the risk of morbidity and mortality, but cross-sectional studies indicate they may also worsen quality of life. We prospectively examined the association of complications that developed during the follow-up with concurrent changes in quality of life. MATERIALS AND METHODS: DISCOVER is a multinational, prospective, observational cohort study of T2D patients enrolled at initiation of second-line glucose-lowering therapy. Quality of life was assessed with the SF-36 Physical (PCS) and Mental Components Summary (MCS) scores at baseline, 6 months, and 1, 2 and 3 years. Hierarchical repeated measures regression models for PCS and MCS were constructed with complications included as time-dependent covariates; first each complication was modelled alone and then second including all interval complications (to account for different complications occurring in the same patient). RESULTS: Among 7830 patients with T2D from 30 countries (mean age 56.6 years, 47.6% women, mean duration of T2D 5.6 years), baseline mean SF-36 PCS was 48.0 ± 7.8 and SF-36 MCS was 45.5 ± 10.4. At baseline, 1422 (18.2%) patients had a known microvascular complication, and 966 (12.3%) had a macrovascular complication. Over the 3 years of the study, 641 (12.0%) developed a new microvascular complication (most commonly neuropathy) and 372 (5.8%) developed a new macrovascular complication (most commonly coronary disease). New diagnoses of coronary disease, peripheral artery disease, heart failure and neuropathy were each associated with subsequent moderate reductions in SF-36 PCS (range 0.7 to 1.6 points) and new cerebrovascular disease was associated with a reduction in SF-36 MCS (2.6 points). Results were consistent when all interval complications were considered in the same model. CONCLUSION: In a prospective, multinational study of patients with T2D, the development of macrovascular complications and neuropathy was associated with decreases in both physical and mental quality of life. Our results provide additional support for clinicians to focus on the prevention, detection and management of the complications of T2D.

Unifying the analysis of continuous and categorical measures of weight loss and incorporating group effect: a secondary re-analysis of a large cluster randomized clinical trial using Bayesian approach.

BACKGROUND: Although frequentist paradigm has been the predominant approach to clinical studies for decades, some limitations associated with the frequentist null hypothesis significance testing have been recognized. Bayesian approaches can provide additional insights into data interpretation and inference by deriving posterior distributions of model parameters reflecting the clinical interest. In this article, we sought to demonstrate how Bayesian approaches can improve the data interpretation by reanalyzing the Rural Engagement in Primary Care for Optimizing Weight Reduction (REPOWER). METHODS: REPOWER is a cluster randomized clinical trial comparing three care delivery models: in-clinic individual visits, in-clinic group visits, and phone-based group visits. The primary endpoint was weight loss at 24 months and the secondary endpoints included the proportions of achieving 5 and 10% weight loss at 24 months. We reanalyzed the data using a three-level Bayesian hierarchical model. The posterior distributions of weight loss at 24 months for each arm were obtained using Hamiltonian Monte Carlo. We then estimated the probability of having a higher weight loss and the probability of having greater proportion achieving 5 and 10% weight loss between groups. Additionally, a four-level hierarchical model was used to assess the partially nested intervention group effect which was not investigated in the original REPOWER analyses. RESULTS: The Bayesian analyses estimated 99.5% probability that in-clinic group visits, compared with in-clinic individual visits, resulted in a higher percent weight loss (posterior mean difference: 1.8%[95% CrI: 0.5,3.2%]), a greater probability of achieving 5% threshold (posterior mean difference: 9.2% [95% CrI: 2.4, 16.0%]) and 10% threshold (posterior mean difference: 6.6% [95% CrI: 1.7, 11.5%]). The phone-based group visits had similar result. We also concluded that including intervention group did not impact model fit significantly. CONCLUSIONS: We unified the analyses of continuous (the primary endpoint) and categorical measures (the secondary endpoints) of weight loss with one single Bayesian hierarchical model. This approach gained statistical power for the dichotomized endpoints by leveraging the information in the continuous data. Furthermore, the Bayesian analysis enabled additional insights into data interpretation and inference by providing posterior distributions for parameters of interest and posterior probabilities of different hypotheses that were not available with the frequentist approach. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier NCT02456636 ; date of registry: May 28, 2015.

Incidence rates and predictors of microvascular and macrovascular complications in patients with type 2 diabetes: Results from the longitudinal global discover study.

BACKGROUND: Micro- and macrovascular complications are a major cause of morbidity and mortality in people with type 2 diabetes (T2D). We sought to understand the global incidence rates and predictors of these complications. METHODS: We examined the incidence of vascular complications over 3 years of follow-up in the DISCOVER study-a global, observational study of people with T2D initiating second-line glucose-lowering therapy. Hierarchical Cox proportional hazards regression models examined factors associated with development of micro- and macrovascular complications during follow-up. RESULTS: Among 11,357 people with T2D from 33 countries (mean age 56.9 ± 11.7 years, T2D duration 5.7 ± 5.1 years, HbA1c 8.4 ± 1.7%), 19.0% had a microvascular complication at enrolment (most commonly neuropathy), and 13.2% had a macrovascular complication (most commonly coronary disease). Over 3 years of follow-up, 16.0% developed an incident microvascular complication, and 6.6% had an incident macrovascular complication. At the end of 3 years of follow-up, 31.5% of patients had at least one microvascular complication, and 16.6% had at least one macrovascular complication. Higher HbA1c and smoking were associated with greater risk of both incident micro- and macrovascular complications. Known macrovascular complications at baseline was the strongest predictor for development of new microvascular complications (HR 1.40, 95% CI 1.21 -1.61) and new macrovascular complications (HR 3.39, 95% CI 2.84 -4.06). CONCLUSIONS: In this global study, both the prevalence and 3-year incidence of vascular complications were high in patients with relatively short T2D duration, highlighting the need for early risk-factor modification.

The SGLT2 inhibitor dapagliflozin in heart failure with preserved ejection fraction: a multicenter randomized trial.

Patients with heart failure and preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) have a high burden of symptoms and functional limitations, and have a poor quality of life. By targeting cardiometabolic abmormalities, sodium glucose cotransporter 2 (SGLT2) inhibitors may improve these impairments. In this multicenter, randomized trial of patients with HFpEF (NCT03030235), we evaluated whether the SGLT2 inhibitor dapagliflozin improves the primary endpoint of Kansas City Cardiomyopathy Questionnaire Clinical Summary Score (KCCQ-CS), a measure of heart failure-related health status, at 12 weeks after treatment initiation. Secondary endpoints included the 6-minute walk test (6MWT), KCCQ Overall Summary Score (KCCQ-OS), clinically meaningful changes in KCCQ-CS and -OS, and changes in weight, natriuretic peptides, glycated hemoglobin and systolic blood pressure. In total, 324 patients were randomized to dapagliflozin or placebo. Dapagliflozin improved KCCQ-CS (effect size, 5.8 points (95% confidence interval (CI) 2.3-9.2, P = 0.001), meeting the predefined primary endpoint, due to improvements in both KCCQ total symptom score (KCCQ-TS) (5.8 points (95% CI 2.0-9.6, P = 0.003)) and physical limitations scores (5.3 points (95% CI 0.7-10.0, P = 0.026)). Dapagliflozin also improved 6MWT (mean effect size of 20.1 m (95% CI 5.6-34.7, P = 0.007)), KCCQ-OS (4.5 points (95% CI 1.1-7.8, P = 0.009)), proportion of participants with 5-point or greater improvements in KCCQ-OS (odds ratio (OR) = 1.73 (95% CI 1.05-2.85, P = 0.03)) and reduced weight (mean effect size, 0.72 kg (95% CI 0.01-1.42, P = 0.046)). There were no significant differences in other secondary endpoints. Adverse events were similar between dapagliflozin and placebo (44 (27.2%) versus 38 (23.5%) patients, respectively). These results indicate that 12 weeks of dapagliflozin treatment significantly improved patient-reported symptoms, physical limitations and exercise function and was well tolerated in chronic HFpEF.

Bayesian EMAX model with a mixture of normal distributions for dose-response in clinical trials.

When a dose-response relationship is monotonic, the EMAX model has been shown to provide a good empirical fit for designing and analyzing dose-response data across a wide range of pharmaceutical studies. However, the EMAX model has never been applied to a finite mixture distribution. Motivated by a proposal investigating DHA dose effect on preterm birth (PTB, <37 weeks gestation) rate, we developed a Bayesian EMAX mixture model incorporating the three normal components finite mixture model into the EMAX framework. The proposed Bayesian EMAX mixture model analyzes gestational age as a continuous variable, which allows for statistically efficient estimates of PTB rate using various cut point with the same parsimonious model. For example, we can estimate the rate of early PTB (ePTB, <34 weeks gestation), PTB (<37 weeks gestation), and late-term birth (>41 weeks gestation) using the same model. We compared our proposed EMAX mixture model with an EMAX logistic model and an independent doses logistic model for a dichotomized endpoint using extensive simulations. Across the scenarios under consideration, the EMAX mixture model achieved higher power than the EMAX logistic model and the independent doses logistic model in detecting the effect of DHA supplementation on the PTB rate. The EMAX mixture model also resulted in smaller mean squared errors (MSE) in PTB rate estimates.

Meta-analysis of dose selection for budesonide in the treatment of Chinese patients with AECOPD.

OBJECTIVE: To systematically observe the curative efficacy and safety of budesonide inhalation in the treatment of acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and to find a suitable dose of aerosolized budesonide for Chinese patients. METHODS: The meta-analysis study was conducted at Wenjiang District People's Hospital, Chengdu City, Sichuan Province, China from May 2019 to August 2019 and comprised randomised controlled trials of glucocorticoids for acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease on the databases of the China National Knowledge Infrastructure, Wanfang Medical Network, PubMed, Medline, Embase, Cochrane Library and Google Scholar. Data extraction and quality evaluation of the studies was done and meta-analysis was then performed using RevMan 5.3. RESULTS: There were 25 studies identified that comprised 1959 patients. When the budesonide dose was 6mg/d and the methylprednisolone dose was 40mg/d, no significant difference was found in partial pressure of carbon dioxide and oxygen post-treatment (p>0.05). When the nebulized budesonide dose was <6mg/d, methylprednisolone was more effective than budesonide (p<0.05), while >6mg/d was not significantly more effective (p>0.05). At 4mg/d, the difference in the dyspnoea score post-treatment was significant (p<0.05). No significant difference was found in dyspnoea scores after intravenous glucocorticoid treatment when the dose was greater than or equal to 4mg/d. In terms of adverse reactions, the response rate of blood glucose, blood pressure, excitement, insomnia and stomach discomfort in the intravenous group was higher than that in the nebulised group (p<0.05). Oropharyngeal discomfort in the nebulized group was higher than that the intravenous group (p<0.05). CONCLUSIONS: The optimal dose for the inhalation of budesonide in Chinese patients was between 4mg/d and 6mg/d. The adverse reactions of nebulised budesonide were lower than those of intravenous methylprednisolone.

What are the factors associated with long-term glycaemic control in patients with type 2 diabetes and elevated glycated haemoglobin (≥7.0%) at initiation of second-line therapy? Results from the DISCOVER study.

AIMS: Glycaemic control is a cornerstone of type 2 diabetes (T2D) management. We assessed factors associated with good long-term glycaemic control in patients with glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c) ≥7.0% at initiation of second-line glucose-lowering therapy, using data from DISCOVER, a global, prospective, 3-year observational study of patients with T2D. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This analysis included patients with HbA1c ≥7.0% at baseline (initiation of second-line therapy). Multivariable regression models assessed factors associated with having HbA1c <7.0% at 3 years in two distinct groups: patients with (a) HbA1c ≥7.0% and <9.0%, and (b) HbA1c ≥9.0% at baseline. RESULTS: In total, 7575 patients with baseline HbA1c ≥7.0% were included (2233 with baseline HbA1c ≥9.0%). At 6 months, 43.7% and 24.2% of patients had an HbA1c level <7.0% in groups a and b, respectively; the corresponding proportions at 3 years were 45.8% and 29.3%. Having HbA1c <7.0% at 6 months (vs. ≥7.0%) was the strongest predictor of having HbA1c <7.0% at 3 years in both group a and group b [odds ratio (95% confidence interval): 2.01 (1.77-2.27) and 2.68 (2.10-3.41), respectively]. Longer T2D duration was associated with a decreased likelihood of having HbA1c <7.0% at 3 years. CONCLUSIONS: In patients with poor glycaemic control at initiation of second-line therapy, early attainment of HbA1c <7.0% appears predictive of long-term glycaemic control, suggesting that timely modification of treatment strategies in patients with elevated HbA1c after 6 months is important to minimize therapeutic inertia.

Early versus late intensification of glucose-lowering therapy in patients with type 2 diabetes: Results from the DISCOVER study.

AIMS: To assess the effects of glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c) levels at time of glucose-lowering treatment intensification in DISCOVER, a global observational study of patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D) initiating second-line therapy. Outcomes of interest were glycaemic control, hypoglycaemia, and need for further intensification during 3 years of follow-up. METHODS: We included patients who intensified treatment (add-on or insulin initiation) upon initiation of second-line therapy (baseline). Outcomes were assessed according to baseline HbA1c: HbA1c ≤ 7·5% (early intensification) or HbA1c > 7·5% (late intensification). Factors associated with early or late intensification were assessed using multivariate logistic regression. RESULTS: Of the 9575 patients included, 3275 (34·2%) intensified treatment early and 6300 (65·8%) intensified treatment late. During follow-up, mean (SD) HbA1c was lower in the early- than in the late-intensification group (6·9% [0·95%] vs 7·5% [1·28%] at 36 months). More patients had HbA1c < 7·0% in the early- than in the late-intensification group (61·8% vs 37·9% at 36 months; p < 0·001). The risk of further intensification was higher in the late-intensification group (hazard ratio 1·88 [95% confidence interval 1·68-2·09]). Occurrence of hypoglycaemia was similar in both groups. CONCLUSIONS: Late intensification of glucose-lowering therapy after first-line treatment failure reduces the likelihood of reaching recommended treatment goals.

Dapagliflozin in patients with cardiometabolic risk factors hospitalised with COVID-19 (DARE-19): a randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled, phase 3 trial.

BACKGROUND: COVID-19 can lead to multiorgan failure. Dapagliflozin, a SGLT2 inhibitor, has significant protective benefits for the heart and kidney. We aimed to see whether this agent might provide organ protection in patients with COVID-19 by affecting processes dysregulated during acute illness. METHODS: DARE-19 was a randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial of patients hospitalised with COVID-19 and with at least one cardiometabolic risk factor (ie, hypertension, type 2 diabetes, atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease, heart failure, and chronic kidney disease). Patients critically ill at screening were excluded. Patients were randomly assigned 1:1 to dapagliflozin (10 mg daily orally) or matched placebo for 30 days. Dual primary outcomes were assessed in the intention-to-treat population: the outcome of prevention (time to new or worsened organ dysfunction or death), and the hierarchial composite outcome of recovery (change in clinical status by day 30). Safety outcomes, in patients who received at least one study medication dose, included serious adverse events, adverse events leading to discontinuation, and adverse events of interest. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04350593. FINDINGS: Between April 22, 2020 and Jan 1, 2021, 1250 patients were randomly assigned with 625 in each group. The primary composite outcome of prevention showed organ dysfunction or death occurred in 70 patients (11·2%) in the dapagliflozin group, and 86 (13·8%) in the placebo group (hazard ratio [HR] 0·80, 95% CI 0·58-1·10; p=0·17). For the primary outcome of recovery, 547 patients (87·5%) in the dapagliflozin group and 532 (85·1%) in the placebo group showed clinical status improvement, although this was not statistically significant (win ratio 1·09, 95% CI 0·97-1·22; p=0·14). There were 41 deaths (6·6%) in the dapagliflozin group, and 54 (8·6%) in the placebo group (HR 0·77, 95% CI 0·52-1·16). Serious adverse events were reported in 65 (10·6%) of 613 patients treated with dapagliflozin and in 82 (13·3%) of 616 patients given the placebo. INTERPRETATION: In patients with cardiometabolic risk factors who were hospitalised with COVID-19, treatment with dapagliflozin did not result in a statistically significant risk reduction in organ dysfunction or death, or improvement in clinical recovery, but was well tolerated. FUNDING: AstraZeneca.